Summary:  What we think is happening here
The basic hypothesis (theory) here is that the Campbell story has been deliberately downplayed, shares diluted, and Balance Sheet made weak, so that Campbell can be merged or taken over be a larger mining company.  We think we have caught [and interrupted] the early stages of a corporate merger or acquisition, where small investors and mine workers would have been screwed.   Actually, small investors and mine workers have already been screwed. 

But with the share price at around a penny ($0.01) right now (January 2009), smart buyers have a huge profit opportunity in front of them.  Our model shows that Campbell should be a $2 - $5 stock.  On this website, we show that even if the company completely closed down, the “corporate salvage” value would be at least $0.50 (fifty cents a share).

So if a merger or acquisition deal is announced soon, the effective price that the Acquirer would have to offer would be 50x higher (or more) than today’s share price of under a penny.
 
These two posts from the Investor Village “Serious” message board give more of an overview:





Please note that the Canadian symbol has changed to CCH.H

And the shares outstanding (full dilution) is now lower (about 468 million), because most of the warrants have now expired.  So our earrings models are even stronger now!


What should a small investor do now?

The CRSA (Campbell Resources Stakeholders Association) believes that Campbell's shares are an excellent investment, and Investors, mine workers, Québec citizens, Cree Indians, and people all around the world should be buying a many shares as that can possible afford at these low prices.

People should also be calling or emailing the OSC, and requesting that an inquiry be opened.  André needs to retire, and I will wish him well.

And it really is “people all around the world”… we have not published any recent website traffic statistics for this website.  Our strategy has been to deliberately wait until a chart breakout, then present they evidence of how much traffic we are getting to add gasoline to the technical breakout.  

But I will reveal that the latest development on the traffic front is that we are seeing a lot of new traffic from Germany.   The most frequent “referring link” in January has been:

http://www.bigfinder.de/index.php

In the country of Germany there are a huge number of decent, hardworking, educated investors.  And there are also a huge number of predatory funds that act like small hedge funds.  They aggressively go short and go long on Junior mining stocks. 

We didn’t have much traffic from Germany before 2009, and the share volume on the drop from ten cents to under a penny was very low.  (It was market maker manipulation only.)
 
My point is that I think the Germans may become our best friends in the next few weeks.  The Germans have the cash, the knowledge, and the market savvy to corner the bastard Market Makers at the ASK, push through the technical breakout, and walk away with a 10 bagger profit (or a 200 – 400 bagger if you take my minimum share price target). 

Funny how that dumb-ass “Trojan Horse” basher named Fordster was quoting German a few weeks ago.  The real Germans reading this website had a good laugh (if they bother to read the pub(l)ic message board).  They know I am not one of them – that would be a certainty if they saw me in person.

Nobody really knows what will happen next, but whatever happens, it’s very unlikely  that it will happen at a share price of under $0.01.  

You will be surprised when you see CBLRF shares being offered at the ASK price, and then when you try to buy them, the Market Makers refuse to fill your order (or take an unusually long time).  What does that tell you?.

Post by “bdhager”:
200,000 share buy order


Even if the Board of Directors decided to completely shut down the company, the final settlement with shareholders would have to be above $0.50 per share because that is the minimal value of Campbell physical “plant and equipment” and tax loss carry-forward.  That number does not include the 4 mines already constructed or the gold and copper in the ground. 

I wrote in a recent post that “Plant and Equipment” is on the Balance sheet (2007 year end) at about $8 million.  That incorrect.  I looked at the 3rd quarter 2008 report, and the Campbell took additional write-downs since then, and “plant and equipment” across all properties is on the books at less than $1 million.  

It sure does look like Management is preparing to allow themselves to be taken over at a low price.  If you are an Accounting firm or a Geological Consulting company – do not get involved!  You face entanglement in lawsuits and probable regulatory actions.

We know the Copper Rand mill alone is worth more than $200 million.  See the posts on the Serious Board.

Even the YouTube Video shows M. Fortier saying that the mill is worth $50 million in his usual suspected Downplay.  Management is not breaking the law with the write-downs.  But that doesn’t mean they are ethical.



Even if “The Plan” is for another private placement (share dilution), it would not happen at a price of $0.01, because so many Institutional Shareholders bought their shares at around 0.08 cents per share, and they would not want to be diluted at an extreme low price.  So if Management wanted to do one more private placement (which we don’t see coming), it would have to be at a price 8x or 16x today’s share price of $0.005 – 0.01.

It’s funny… nothing can even happen at a .01 share price.

We think the most likely news coming next is that Corner Bay production will start immediately.  The CCH share price would respond very nicely to that news.

And they better hurry up, because Nuinsco may not even have ownership of 50% of the cash flow form Corner Bay mine if the OSC (and / or) lawyers gets involved here.  Or maybe the Auditors will demand that the quarterly reports that describe “Nuinsco’s 50% buy-in completed” get retracted and corrected.
 
We are “taking no hostages”.  Get your ship in order Andre!   We will be “upping the ante” in the coming weeks.   You know what you need to do to get Activist Shareholders off your back and have a path to a relaxing, peaceful, and pleasant retirement in your favorite sunny place down south.