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Updated June 7, 2009 (Merrill Document)
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site en français Alert: Secret Merrill Island Document passed to Activist Shareholders (click here) Summary: What we think is happening here including "What should a small investor do now?" Welcome OSC Regulators! Samson Belair (Deloitte & Touche) A question of improper Auditing Parallels with the HudBay / Lundin case Coming Soon: (separate links for) Value
of Mill and
tax loss carry forward
Copper Rand Mine Corner Bay Mine Joe Mann Merrill Island and Cedar Bay Value of Mill and tax loss carry forward These topics have all been discussed in great detail on “The Serious Message Board” We will soon be adding separate web pages on this website for these discussions, and we will present the most important posts and data. An added advantage of this will be that Google and other Search Engines will pick and index these discussions. For the time being, please find the latest info on “The Serious Board: Link to “The Serious Message Board” on InvestorVillage (a moderated board with no trash or “bashing”) Updated August 10, 2008 Quick summary of the Campbell Resources opportunity (for new Readers). Click here. At least $2 billion of profit potential (gold and copper production) in the ground, with mines already developed. Current market cap, under $50 million. Breaking News: We have learned that NovaGold shareholders have filed a lawsuit against NovaGold Management and Officers in the Southern District of New York. This court has a reputation of taking serious action, when a case is proven Campbell’s Activist shareholders (CRSA) are looking at this lawsuit filing with inspiration. This is the first time that we know of that a reputable law firm has built this type of case against a Canadian company. We believe our theories about Campbell are even stronger and will be more easily proven (but not proven yet). Recent posts from the InvestorVillage message boards: NovaGold being sued in New York Courts Discussion on the strength of our case (one discussion) Building a (United States) Court case around “materially false and misleading statements" NovaGold does not “need to win” Research by “Raj” – the connections that certain players have to Noranda (XStrata), a major mining company that has been engaged in Acquisitions. (click here) Link to the "Serious Message Board” (much more detailed info here) The biggest “downplay" example we believe we see is with the Copper Rand mine. But here is a link to some discussion on the Joe Mann mine… Here's the 400,000 ounce gold number, from their Annual report. Joe Mann's gold press releases (from years back - compare to the story today) Updated March 10, 2008 This is “Breaking News” for an audience that is familiar with the issue. If you are new here, scroll down a little, and read the general information about this company. They have 3 mines in production, over 1 million ounces of Gold (which they don’t like to talk about), about 500 million pounds of high grade copper, and two other assets that are worth more than the total market cap of about $50 million. The “tax loss carry-forward” and the Copper Rand mill are worth more than the total market cap. So a large mining company could possibly buy out Campbell [if the Institutions would sell], get a mortgage on the mill, and keep the tax loss carry forward (worth about $80 million), and make an immediate profit WITHOUT even producing - that's how undervalued CCH / CBLRF is right now. And the gold and copper production will be worth $30 - $80+ million a year (PE ratio of just 1 or 2), as soon as Management “throws the switch”. If you are new here, scroll right past this controversy, and study the real value here. You will be shocked! This is the single most undervalued company in the entire mining sector right now. Breaking News Alert: Campbell’s retail shareholders are now in broad agreement that Campbell Management and the Campbell Resources Board of Directors approved of Nuinsco's acquisition of their 50% stake in Corner Bay, while excusing and forgiving the requirement for Nuinsco to make their agreed upon $4 million investment into the project. There was a $4 million financing in 2007, but it was completed in violation of agreements documented in Campbell’s 2006 Annual Report. It is the opinion of shareholders that Campbell Management and the Campbell Resources Board of Directors just basically gave away shareholder equity to Nuinsco. They did this by approving a “quid pro quo” transaction, while the 2006 agreement required an up-front financial contribution from Nuinsco. Take note that two of Nuinsco’s top Executives sit on Campbell’s Board. More discussion here (from the “Serious" message board - posts starting at #1435) You may see the some type of company response pasted here, on the public message board; we read Mr. Fortier’s obfuscated responses through the postings of Message Board Trolls like “MeggyMoo”. Refer to posts starting with #3929 on this public message board (link below). Here’s an opinion by an honest and serious Campbell investor (“sanbosco"). Read the responses on this board (the Trolls are not allowed on the Serious Board). You will see how Management is trying to deny this charge, yet Management has failed to back the comments they have made. You can see how this story is being denied and attacked. And Mr. Fortier refuses to answer the tough questions from the retail shareholder community. http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=9985&mn=3929&pt=msg&mid=4281466 Updated January 7 and January 8, 2008 We are please to announce the Serious Discussion on Campbell has moved over to an InvestorVillage semi-private Message Board For daily updates, please visit this message board. Breaking News Alert: We have now found a press release that documents that there was a Feasibility study performed on the Copper Rand mine in 1997. The study proved RESERVES of almost 300,000 ounces of GOLD, and proved that the Reserves could be profitably mined over a 5 year period. The production cost was demonstrated to be so low that it would provide a 17% investment return even at the gold and copper prices seen in 1997. http://www.thefreelibrary.com/MSV+Completes+$40+Million+Financing-a020579676 A second press release that refers to the 1997 Feasibility study These Reserves are almost TRIPLE what the company has recently presented to shareholders. In all recent reports, the Reserve category at Copper Rand has about 100,000 ounces of Gold. The gold grades proven in the 1997 study are also much higher than what has been recently presented. Management is trying to convince us that we should be looking at a “revised” study that was performed in 1999. The “downplayed” Gold Reserves in the 2006 Prospectus and Annual report If you think the revised study is the accurate one, think again. The 2001 Proxy Circular says that the only difference is that the revised report didn’t go as deep (500 feet less vertical depth). But Campbell has already started development on the same deeper levels described in the original 1997 study. And remember that the 1997 study was the basis for raising $40 million in investment. New observation: Look closely at the 1997 press release (the link is above). Read the first sentence! It says right there that there that Management was planning for the Copper Rand 5000 project to produce for at least 10 years! This “10+ year mine life” statement is consistent with the 4 press releases that show Resources (separate from reserves) of at least 550,000 ounces of GOLD. All this talk about a “mine life of 5 years” is just the beginning. Management has already discussed a mine life of 10+ years. Here are the press releases that document Resources of at least 550,000 ounces of gold (in addition to the 300,000 ounces of Reserves): I love this quote: Mr. Andre Fortier, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of MSV commented that: "The first intersection in the no. 3 horizon is very important for MSV since it can be readily mined simply by extending the underground ramp by a few hundred meters and the drift at the 3900 level by approximately one hundred meters. The mining of this gold-rich zone should impact favorably on the profitability of the Copper Rand mine." This quote by Mr., Fortier applies to the new Resource, not the 300,000 ounce Reserve (which is triple the Reserve that we have been told about) Shareholders want to see the 1997 Feasibility Study. Mr. Fortier is trying to talk us out of looking at that report. Please read the semi-private message board (link above) for daily updates on this issue. The Campbell Mystery Campbell is a producing gold and copper miner, which has been around for over 40 years. They have 3 mines in production right now (Copper Rand, Corner Bay, and Merrill Island]. In February 2007, Campbell emerged from CCAA (Canadian restructuring protection). A group of well-respected Canadian Financial Institutions have invested over $25 million in Campbell’s private placements in the last 16 months. Several more Canadian mutual funds and limited partnerships have been buying shares (documented below). The technical chart shows strong accumulation, with the highest volume on the up-moves. We have documented our “base earnings” model for annual earnings of $30 - $80 million (a forward PE ratio of around 1 or 2). This is based on just 3 mines: Copper Rand, Corner Bay, and Merrill. With these additional projects like Cedar Bay (lots of Gold), future earnings could be much higher. Don't forget the royalties (described in links below). Recent quarters has produced losses, but many shareholders are suspicious (opinion only) that Campbell may be holding back (downplaying) their operational performance. This website investigates that possibility, and the above message board has many more examples for readers to study. Ask yourself why a Mining company would sit on a documented Gold resource of over million ounces of gold (as analyzed by shareholders), and yet Management remains “hush-hush” on the issue of how large their gold resource is. The 1995 press release (Drill results) New resources of over 550,000 ounces gold A few selected intercepts: Width Grades feet) Cu Au (percent) (oz/t) 13.7 2.65 0.522 27.0 2.93 0.206 37.0 1.46 0.355 Drill intercepts of 13 feet (or 37 feet) at those gold grades are very substantial. [quote from the 1995 press release] "These results clearly establish the continuity at depth of the geological environment and of the mineralized zones associated with the Copper Rand ore body." There has been at least one further reference to this new gold zone in a United States SEC filing. This has recently been documented on the message board. But when you call the company, they really don't like to talk about these results, and they are making little effort (in our opinion) to promote the company. More general info here Quick Summary of the Campbell Resources Opportunity Articles Very Recent article in “Northern Miner” (off Campbell’s own website) Time Magazine: 1956 article on Chibougamau (contribution from “Cv14”) Northern Miner article from Oct 1987 (20 years ago) References to Cedar Bay (contribution from “Cv14”) Traffic to this website has exploded! This website has received over 33,000 hits from over 4,600 unique visitors (click here for proof, directly from our Server Logs) Copper Rand Drill results (more links and Analysis) GOLD! When is the last time that Campbell Investor Relations made any public comments about expected gold production from the Copper Rand mine? I can’t remember – it’s been years. All I remember is Investor Relations trying to “talk things down” in late 2005 and 2006, and lower expectations for gold production from Copper Rand. Even the “Final Prospectus” (filed in Sedar.com in Sept. 2006) attempted to cut the gold production target in half. And you had to figure out the production targets, using your own calculations, from the data on page 49 of the Prospectus. (My calculations based on the Prospectus data are in the StockHouse post in the left column.) But if you go back to 2004, Mr. Fortier was talking openly about very strong Copper Rand gold production. The moment the Financiers started to get involved, the gold story was hushed. Gold production of 50,000 ounces, at a Canadian gold price of $700 CAD, would lead to earnings of $35 million right there (just the gold, at just one mine). Remember that the gold production at Copper Rand is “free” byproduct – all costs and amortization can be covered by the copper production (at 2 of their mines). And as documented in the 2006 Annual Report, Campbell won’t be paying corporate taxes for my quarters. Other posts: This post contains a link to the Natural Resources Canada website, showing the annual target of 56,000 oz of gold (plus millions of pounds of copper), just from Copper Rand. The post above also has links to Campbell’s 2004 slide show AND Campbell’s 2007 slide show. You can see the downplay (opinion only), when you compare the two slide shows. The 2004 slide show shows expectations of much higher profits and production targets from Copper Rand. Joe Mann targets are included in the 2004 slide show, but there is one slide dedicated to Copper Rand. The 2007 slide show is downplayed everywhere (opinion only) – total gold production of around 20,000 ounces across all mines (seen on slide 20). Campbell has spent MILLIONS in improving the Copper Rand mine, with the biggest improvements coming from installing the Alimak Mining System. So how do they get away with suggesting that gold production targets have been roughly cut in half, and costs have doubled (since their very public statements just 3 years ago)? Copper Rand gold production targets – multiple links that document annual target of 50,000 ounces gold (plus copper) just from Copper Rand. And look at these drill results from 2004! (SEC report below). You really have to wonder if some holes and some areas of mineralization were left out of the Geologist Technical Report (filed in Sedar, Sept. 2006) . The 1995 report (near top of this page) is even better! Copper Rand Drill results (more links and Analysis) Copper Rand gold production – the “disappeared” drill results I think there’s a good chance that the Copper Rand resource will grow to include the higher grade areas of gold mineralization (up to 7 grams per ton). I find it interesting how, even in the “Final Prospectus” (filed in Sedar.com in Sept. 2006), on page 49, the target gold grades for the first 3 years are listed as 0.067, when there are numerous areas of mineralization with much higher grades. Older Posts: Using the latest presentation, how to get to $80 million in earnings (or more) Start with this “downplayed” (opinion only) Company presentation, then use more realistic assumptions: Campbell has 2- 4 producing properties PLUS 6 royalties (3 in Canada, three in Mexico). The royalties will not generate cash in the near-term, but will contribute to the overall value here (future cash flow) (research in the Mexican royalties contributed by other Stakeholders Association members) The Mexican Royalties: Analysis from “sp1” that documents the Mexican royalties Quick summary of the royalties (also from “sp1”) Management practically admits to over-estimating their Corner Bay production costs (This commentary refers to their July 23rd press release) If you are skeptical of our “Management downplay” theories, this press release should be considered a huge revelation. If Management can try to fool us here, they can be doing it everywhere. Expected copper and gold production from Copper Rand? (is this another example of “downplay”?) Comparing CCH now to 2002-2004 (posted on the StockHouse board in 2006) List of Remedies we should request from the Campbell Board of Directors. Campbell Management will be receiving this list via “attorney letter” in a short amount of time. Precedent of the “Whole Foods” / Wild Oats case The serious investors in Campbell have been subjected to a relentless 2 years campaign to discredit their message and disrupt their online conversations. A full time team of "Bashers" (Trolls) have operating on various message boards where we discuss Campbell for over 2 years. But after the precedent of the recent "Whole Foods" case, you might take a guess that people connected with the company, and their Institutional friends, have been sponsoring the Bashing campaign. News coverage found using Google (apparently, the Media likes this story) Our commentary How the Campbell Board “stole” the Rights Offering from shareholders (opinion only) Campbell Board of Directors reluctant to enact a Shareholder Rights Plan Now being seen in major Canadian cities: Now being seen in major Canadian cities:
(promotion effort courtesy of "Raj", from the InvestorVillage message boards) |
